"Just be optimistic", an ex-colleague at the agency told me while on a one-minute elevator ride at GT Tower yesterday.  She was actually referring to the prospects of 2008.

Honestly, I am optimistic about 2008.  The future is bright for those who know how to navigate the twists and turns of this calendar year.  Most people I've met are giddy about 2008 and there really is cause for being so.  We simply breezed through 2007.  It was as if we were coasting at 120kph on a four lane freeway.

As I look now at 2008, I feel that the freeway may eventually have to end and it seems like we'll be entering a zigzag road much resemblant of the uphill climb to Baguio along Kennnon Road.  Note, I didn't say a rocky road - just a zigzag road.  No one drives at 120kph on a zigzag road with crevices beneath and with oncoming traffic coming out from blind corners.  Hence, the need to navigate.

Personally, I am fascinated with this verb "navigate" as I describe what's up ahead business-wise.  The word denotes the inclusion of having enough common sense to anticipate what lies ahead as well as the skill to manage getting through the obstacles which may arise.  Navigate - I have had this word popping up in my mind just a few days before New Year's day 2008.  I could only smile as I heard the same term being used in the same context when Pastor Joey Bonifacio shared his first Sunday preaching for 2008.

Seeing that this where I'm coming from, I suppose it is easy to misconstrue this want for caution as pessimism.  

Allow me to share a few items to finally give you, reader, the full picture.

Back in 1997, prior to the Asian Financial Crisis, we were enjoying the gains of the country under the Ramos Administration.  All of a sudden the Asian Financial Crisis hit from out of nowhere.  An interesting note was that while turmoil was brewing in Thailand (where the crisis emanated), there was no indication whatsoever of the magnitude of its ripple effect.  The fact that it affected the large majority of the region only shows how vulnerable we have become through global interconnection.

Fast forward to 2003.  The SARS epidemic.  At the ad agency, we saw multinational clients cutting back on advertising spending immediately as the magnitude of the epidemic was being reported.

Here we see only two items that can cause a ripple effect.  While the Asian Financial Crisis happened without any prior warning, I'd have to say, we'd be very stupid to be speeding through 2008 without a single iota of caution given all the signs around us.

In the last quarter we've seen: the devaluation of the dollar, the charge of oil to 100 dollars per barrel (and its recent slide to correct itself), the sub-prime crisis hitting the US.  Up for this year, in the pipeline is : the US elections, a local real estate market that seems to be heating up (the AFC in Thailand was partly real estate driven), and other occurences here and there that serve as a signpost saying : SLIPPERY WHEN WET .

I'm no economist but I believe that the "growth" we are now seeing here in the Philippines is merely the result of capital investment. We have yet to see total productivity growth arising from the capital investment.  Only growth in total productivity, and not capital investment, leads to long term sustainability/prosperity.

To wrap it up, I am optimistic.  I simply have two feet on the ground at the same time.