This is not a political assessment.  This is an analysis from the POV of an advertising professional.

Erap's camp is banking on the masa to win the presidency.  What they don't seem to realize is that the masa is deeply segmented by age.  He may have the old folk, admirers of his from the John en Marsha and action movie era, but certainly not the young masa who are bent to move up and are pursuing a more progressive mindset given the advent of SMS and PCs.

The media consumption habits of these young masa are different as well.

Erap's bid for the presidency very much reminds me of the "Pitch of the Decade" when San Miguel Beer was looking for a new agency back in 2001.  Erap can very much be likened to San Miguel Pale Pilsen - then touted as "my father's beer", battling for brand identity (and perhaps survival) in an age of coffee drinkers, Starbucks, and San Mig Light.

Erap as a brand may have strong recall.  But it is not the kind of recall that would prompt a consumer to purchase a product.  The recall is more of nostalgia just like when some of us remember the 3 dancing girls of Caronia.

Again, these are some quick thoughts from an ad guy, not a political analyst.

Care to add anything from the marketing and brand standpoint?